U.S. Government Further Cracks Down on "Origin Washing," LME Copper Closes Higher After Overnight Volatility [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, November 13, 2025

Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $10,812/mt, touched a low of $10,808/mt at the beginning of the session, then rose straight to a high of $10,972/mt near the end, and finally closed at $10,897/mt, up 0.53%, with trading volume reaching 20,000 lots and open interest at 319,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2512 contract opened at 87,100 yuan/mt, touched a low of 86,840 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then rose all the way to a high of 87,670 yuan/mt near the end, and finally closed at 87,410 yuan/mt, up 0.78%, with trading volume reaching 47,000 lots and open interest at 200,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 12, the US Trade Representative (USTR) and the Treasury Department continued to pressure Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore to strengthen supervision of transshipment and curb "origin laundering." The five countries successively introduced stricter rules of origin, including raising the threshold for local content ratio (RVC), strengthening substantial processing requirements, and centralizing the issuance of certificates of origin. Malaysia requires 70% local content for exports to the US, while Vietnam and Thailand raised the requirement to 40%–50%. In the short term, China's transshipment trade via Southeast Asia will face higher compliance and tax costs, but in the long term, it may prompt enterprises to accelerate the layout of the entire industry chain in Southeast Asia and promote regional supply chain integration.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 12, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 130 yuan/mt, with the average price at a premium of 55 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 86,630 to 86,960 yuan/mt. In the morning, SHFE copper futures continued to fall to 86,580 yuan/mt before stopping the decline and rebounding, rising to 86,850 yuan/mt, and closed the morning session at 86,660 yuan/mt. The inter-month spread showed a contango of around 20 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was about 800 yuan/mt. For today, spot transactions are expected to remain around parity.

(2) Guangdong: On November 12, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with the average price at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt, with the average price at a discount of 100 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 86,660 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 86,570 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, suppliers actively held prices firm to sell, but downstream users purchased cautiously, and overall trading was moderate.

(3) Imported copper: On November 12, warrant prices were $28–40/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $40–52/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$10/mt to $4/mt, QP November, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 12, the futures closing price was 86,660 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 55 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained flat MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,300-78,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,311 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,570 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, some enterprises reported that as the year-end approaches, local governments in certain areas suggested secondary copper rod enterprises control production. Meanwhile, with copper prices fluctuating rangebound today, order performance was weak, and market transactions were mediocre.

(5) Inventories: On November 11, LME copper cathode inventories held steady at 136,250 mt. On November 12, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 1,124 mt to 44,088 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the House of Representatives will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown on Wednesday. Market concerns that a large amount of economic data will be released after the shutdown ends, impacting subsequent interest rate decisions, put the US dollar index under pressure, supporting copper prices. Additionally, a regional Fed president with voting rights expressed hawkish views on a December interest rate cut, tempering market optimism for rate cuts. On the fundamentals, supply side, high-quality copper supply increased, and overall market supply was loose. Demand side, copper prices fluctuated at highs, and market trading sentiment was mediocre. Overall, with mixed macro factors, copper prices are expected to maintain high, narrow fluctuations today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]